In this FSD episode, Ram questions Anthropic's $30 trillion market claim, a figure that happens to match the GDP of the United States. He argues the productivity boom needed to reach it would create so much deflation that the number could never arrive.
He also covers why financial services is a primary beneficiary of AI, why 90% to 95% of banks run on Microsoft, and NVIDIA's move into the open weight layer with a billion dollars into Poolside. Broadcom guides to a double and then another double, NVIDIA grows earnings 75%, and Dell raises revenue guidance by $25 billion into a sector down 25%.
His read: demand is strong, supply is constrained, and that constraint is what prevents a bubble. Hedge fund net exposure sits at the first percentile, which sets up a chase into late September. He closes on rates, why equity markets bottom at peak interest rates, and multifamily foreclosures that signal bad balance sheets rather than a weak economy.
(00:00) Dinner with an Amex exec, and Anthropic's takedown request
(01:12) Financial services as a primary beneficiary of AI
(01:54) Why every bank is a Microsoft shop
(02:38) Anthropic turns model scarcity into a sales tool
(03:43) The old Intel Pentium price discrimination trick
(04:19) The executive who wants to replace his team with agents
(04:58) Why AI creates infinite work, not less
(05:51) Where we are on the adoption curve: the BofA CTO
(06:47) Anthropic's $30 trillion TAM doesn't add up
(07:29) NVIDIA is building The Avengers: neoclouds and open weights
(08:27) Broadcom's double then a double, and NVIDIA's margins
(10:22) Demand is strong, supply is constrained
(10:43) The Navy, drones, and Shield AI at twice our mark
(12:07) There's no better customer than the U.S. government
(12:38) Reading every earnings transcript, and the Lumida app
(13:32) Semis: positioning has cleared, PEG ratios at 0.6
(14:31) Buffett bought Google 15 months ago
(14:48) September, hedge fund exposure, and getting overweight
(15:47) Dell's $25 billion guide into a 25% drawdown
(16:13) Non consensus bullish: getting to the party on time
(16:59) Token consumption, and the real dot com difference
(19:11) Favorite names: Sterling Infrastructure and Comfort Systems
(20:04) The mean reversion strategy that bought FIX this morning
(21:36) Snowflake, 13Fs, and following specialist hedge funds
(23:09) Aon: buying quality after the M&A selloff
(24:57) Staples: Walmart, Dollar Tree, Philip Morris
(26:03) Why open weight models are net negative for Anthropic
(27:03) Jensen, the White House, and undercutting China
(27:48) Pulled over by the police in a self driving Tesla
(29:19) Google's AI hypothesized a molecule that worked
(30:01) What back up the truck cheap looked like in 2023
(30:47) Higher rates reflect a higher return on capital
(31:33) The 2021 hangover: private equity and multifamily ARMs
(33:15) Kenny Pasternak on real estate prices bottoming
(35:12) Equity markets bottom at peak interest rates
(36:05) Credit spreads, munis, and the reset in HYG
(37:39) A New York event on September 26, and the new app feed
(39:05) Private deals: Adams with Travis Kalanick
(40:05) Defense stocks are selling off, start building a list
(41:28) A fintech leader nobody is talking about
(41:55) Why I can't get my head around space
(42:31) Camping, an old friend, and the Art of Living
About the show: Non-Consensus Investing is Ram Ahluwalia's running commentary on markets, where he shares how he's actually positioning capital and talks through the ideas most investors are missing. Real-time analysis, specific names, and a bias toward what's overlooked rather than what's crowded.