Ram looks at the midterms through the lens of markets. His bottom line: the betting markets are likely right, Democrats look set to take the House, and the Senate should be more competitive than people expect. For markets, he says, gridlock would help the most.
Ram looks at the midterms through the lens of markets. His bottom line: the betting markets are likely right, Democrats look set to take the House, and the Senate should be more competitive than people expect. For markets, he says, gridlock would help the most.
He explains the inverse Trump bump. Markets have been pricing in a Democratic win for months, so much of it is already consensus, and themes like AI, semis, financials and defense stocks have started to come off their lows.
From there he widens out: populism on both sides, how quantitative easing pushed up house prices, a Manhattan landlord caught in rent control, and why excess federal deficit spending is linked to corporate profits. His take: stay the long game, the economy is strong and the AI story is real.
Chapters
(00:00) Midterms and the stock market
(06:09) Susan Collins and the betting markets
(06:51) Why gridlock is best for markets
(07:20) The inverse Trump bump
(08:11) What is already priced in: AI, semis, financials and defense
(09:05) Elections matter: Brazil and the Clinton years
(10:21) Student debt and the rise of populism
(11:32) Quantitative easing and house prices
(12:20) A Manhattan landlord and rent control
(13:59) When markets don't allocate resources
(15:18) Why Ram is still an optimist on America
(16:55) Deficit spending and corporate profits
(18:27) Two election scenarios for markets
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