Lumida Wealth : Non-Consensus Invest Beyond the Ordinary

FSD: Not In My Backyard

Episode Notes

In this FSD episode, the starting point is the split tearing through the market: Micron holding firm while the Mag 7, Bitcoin, and software stay under pressure. The explanation runs through free cash flow. Analyst estimates for Microsoft, Meta, and Google are basically flat for three years before jumping suddenly, which is what it looks like when the CapEx payers hand cash to the CapEx receivers like Micron. From there the episode gets into a family-office breakfast and the unglamorous businesses that mint fortunes, a new politician-trading leaderboard in the Lumida app, and a longer riff on why housing costs are broken, all of it coming back to incentives and the not-in-my-backyard problem that also blocks nuclear energy and keeps Waymos out of New York.

• (00:00) Under Pressure and the Micron vs Mag 7 split
• (01:30) Free cash flow: why Microsoft, Meta, and Google go flat then jump
• (03:00) Meta's 2022 Reality Labs scare and the 400% recovery
• (05:00) Hyperscalers caught between the AI race and shareholder returns
• (07:00) Why cloud businesses justify the CapEx and the semis timeline to 2027
• (08:30) Rules of thumb: two red bars and waiting for the trend to break
• (10:00) Family-office breakfast: boring businesses that built fortunes
• (12:30) The politician-trading leaderboard and John Fetterman at the top
• (14:00) Ro Khanna's paper filings and why that raises questions
• (15:30) Josh Gottheimer's uncanny sell timing
• (17:00) New York electing Democratic Socialists and the history of leftward swings
• (19:00) Why young grads turned left: debt, jobs, and academic jargon
• (21:00) How both extremes elevate ideology over humanity
• (23:00) The lesson of incentives, China's reforms, and the tragedy of the commons
• (25:30) Self-evident rights, skepticism, and the American Republic
• (28:00) Not in my backyard: quantitative easing and the housing shortage
• (30:00) How affordable-housing systems get gamed
• (32:00) NIMBY as the enemy of progress: nuclear, Waymos, and public goods

About the show: Non-Consensus Investing is Ram Ahluwalia's running commentary on markets, where he shares how he's actually positioning capital and talks through the ideas most investors are missing. Real-time analysis, specific names, and a bias toward what's overlooked rather than what's crowded.